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TFSA Growth Projection Calculator

Project your TFSA balance with regular contributions over time. Compares tax-free growth to an equivalent non-registered portfolio.

Reviewed by Ben Stevenson, Editor Updated April 21, 2026 Source CRA 2026

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The Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) is a registered account introduced by the federal government in January 2009. Interest, dividends, and capital gains earned inside the account are not subject to Canadian income tax. The calculator above operates in three modes: Projection estimates a future balance from a contribution schedule and return rate, Historical Replay shows the balance an investor would hold today if they had contributed to a chosen market index every year since 2009, and Drawdown estimates how long a balance lasts under a fixed annual withdrawal.

Quick answer

Lifetime TFSA contribution room through 2026 is $109,000 for a resident of Canada who was 18 or older in 2009 and has never contributed. Contributing each year’s maximum from 2009 through a 30-year horizon at a 7% annual return produces a balance of approximately $830,000. At 5%, the same schedule produces approximately $500,000. At 9%, approximately $1,300,000. An equivalent non-registered portfolio for an Ontario resident in the second federal tax bracket produces a balance $150,000 to $250,000 lower, depending on the return assumed and the fraction of returns realized as interest or short-term gains.

Three modes of calculation

Projection

Projects a future TFSA balance from a starting balance, annual contribution, years to project, and expected return. Compares the result against an equivalent non-registered account at the estimated combined federal and provincial marginal rate. Optional Monte Carlo mode overlays a 10th-to-90th percentile uncertainty band using 500 simulated paths at the chosen return and a 12% annualized volatility assumption.

Historical replay

Applies the actual annual total returns of a chosen benchmark from a selected start year (2009 or later) through the end of 2025. Three benchmarks are available: the S&P/TSX Composite Total Return Index, the S&P 500 Total Return Index (CAD unhedged), and a 60% TSX / 40% Canadian bond blend. Returns are year-end total returns sourced from S&P Dow Jones and FTSE Canada index data. Past performance is not a forecast of future returns.

Drawdown

Models the depletion of a TFSA balance under a fixed annual withdrawal. Withdrawals are taken at year end after returns are applied. Amounts withdrawn are added back to contribution room on January 1 of the following calendar year, as required by the Income Tax Act. Output shows the number of years the balance lasts, total tax-free income withdrawn, and the cumulative contribution room restored during the drawdown period.

How the math works

TFSA compound growth

The calculator compounds the prior-year balance at the chosen annual return, then adds the annual contribution at year end. No tax is applied to returns inside the TFSA. The formula is the standard future value of an ordinary annuity with an initial lump sum: FV = PV × (1 + r)n + C × [(1 + r)n − 1] / r, where PV is the starting balance, C is the annual contribution, r is the annual return, and n is the number of years.

Non-registered comparison

The non-registered portfolio compounds at an after-tax return equal to r × (1 − m × t), where m is the user’s combined federal and provincial marginal tax rate and t is the fraction of annual returns treated as taxable. The calculator uses t = 1/3, a blended assumption that accounts for the mix of interest income (fully taxable), eligible dividends (taxable with the dividend tax credit), and capital gains (50% taxable when realized). The same assumption is documented in the public methodology of the Wealthsimple TFSA calculator and the Ontario Securities Commission’s GetSmarterAboutMoney calculator.

Province and income

The calculator derives the combined federal and provincial marginal rate from the province and pre-tax income. A three-band 2026 lookup is used: taxable income up to $60,000, between $60,000 and $120,000, and above $120,000. Quebec residents have the federal abatement applied. Real marginal rates vary with surtaxes, dividend tax credits, and low-income reductions, and can differ from the band value by one to three percentage points.

Cumulative room from birth year and residency

When birth year and Canadian residency start year are supplied, the calculator derives the cumulative TFSA contribution room through 2026 by summing the annual limits for each year the account holder was 18 or older and resident in Canada. Lifelong residents born in or before 1991 reach the full $109,000 cumulative room. Those who arrived in Canada later, or who turned 18 later, have a proportionally smaller cumulative room.

Monte Carlo band

When enabled in Projection mode, the Monte Carlo option simulates 500 return paths using Gaussian draws with mean equal to the chosen annual return and standard deviation of 12%. The chart shades the 10th to 90th percentile range of simulated balances at each year. This visualises sequence-of-returns risk: a path with the same long-run mean return but an unfavorable sequence of early losses can produce a materially smaller balance than a flat-return projection implies.

Scope of the projection

  • Projection mode applies returns as a flat annual rate. Historical replay mode uses real year-by-year returns.
  • Future changes to federal brackets, provincial rates, or annual TFSA limits are not modelled.
  • Quebec Pension Plan (QPP) and Quebec Parental Insurance Plan (QPIP) deductions are not modelled.
  • US citizens, green card holders, and non-residents of Canada are subject to additional tax rules not modelled by this calculator.
  • Business-income determination on frequent trading activity is not modelled.

Verified against source

The calculator’s rules, limits, and penalty math are sourced from the Canada Revenue Agency. Historical returns are sourced from S&P Dow Jones Indices and FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index data. Population comparison is sourced from CRA Tax-Free Savings Account Statistics.

TFSA annual contribution limits, 2009 to 2026

TFSA contribution room accrues in each calendar year beginning the year a person turns 18, provided the person is resident in Canada. Unused room carries forward with no expiry. Cumulative room through 2026, for a person who was 18 or older on January 1, 2009, is $109,000.

Year Annual limit
2009 $5,000
2010 $5,000
2011 $5,000
2012 $5,000
2013 $5,500
2014 $5,500
2015 $10,000
2016 $5,500
2017 $5,500
2018 $5,500
2019 $6,000
2020 $6,000
2021 $6,000
2022 $6,000
2023 $6,500
2024 $7,000
2025 $7,000
2026 $7,000
Cumulative $109,000

Personal contribution room is reported by the CRA in the user’s My Account service. The TFSA Contribution Room Calculator estimates remaining room from a contribution and withdrawal history.

Average TFSA balance by age group (CRA, 2023 tax year)

The Canada Revenue Agency publishes average TFSA fair market values by age group in the Tax-Free Savings Account Statistics release each year. Figures below are from the 2023 tax year, published in 2025. The all-ages average TFSA fair market value was $33,534.

Age group Average TFSA fair market value
Under 25 $4,200
25 to 29 $7,900
30 to 34 $16,760
35 to 39 $21,300
40 to 44 $26,100
45 to 49 $31,800
50 to 54 $37,900
55 to 59 $44,200
60 to 64 $50,700
65 to 69 $58,500
70 and over $63,400

Source: Canada Revenue Agency, Tax-Free Savings Account Statistics, 2023 tax year, Table 3A. Figures update annually.

How the tax-free advantage compounds

In a non-registered account, returns are taxed annually, which reduces the amount available to compound in the following year. In a TFSA, the full return reinvests. Over a 25 to 30 year horizon, this difference accumulates.

At a 7% gross return, a TFSA compounds at 7%. For an Ontario resident with a combined marginal rate of 31.48%, a non-registered account with one-third of returns treated as taxable compounds at 7% × (1 − 0.3148 × 1/3) ≈ 6.27%. Over 30 years, 7% compounding produces a 7.61× multiple. 6.27% compounding produces a 6.21× multiple. Applied to a $109,000 contribution base, the final balances are approximately $830,000 in the TFSA versus $680,000 in the non-registered account. The gap widens with higher marginal rates, longer horizons, and a higher share of returns realized as taxable interest.

TFSA and RRSP tax treatment

TFSAs and Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) are both tax-sheltered, but their treatment on contribution and withdrawal is inverted.

  • TFSA. Contributions are made with after-tax dollars. Investment growth is tax-free. Withdrawals are tax-free and can occur at any age.
  • RRSP. Contributions are tax-deductible against earned income. Investment growth is tax-deferred. Withdrawals are fully taxable as income in the year withdrawn. RRSP accounts must be converted to a RRIF, annuity, or withdrawn in full by December 31 of the year the account holder turns 71.
  • Annual room. The 2026 TFSA limit is $7,000 per person. The 2026 RRSP limit is the lesser of 18% of earned income and $32,490.
  • Withdrawal re-contribution. TFSA withdrawals restore contribution room on January 1 of the following calendar year. RRSP withdrawals, other than Home Buyers’ Plan and Lifelong Learning Plan amounts, do not restore room.

A side-by-side comparison with specific income and bracket assumptions is available in the RRSP vs TFSA Calculator.

Rules that affect the projection

Withdrawal re-contribution timing

TFSA withdrawals are added back to the account holder’s contribution room on January 1 of the calendar year following the withdrawal. Re-contribution within the same calendar year without pre-existing unused room creates an excess contribution subject to the 1% per-month tax.

Excess TFSA amount: 1% monthly tax

An excess contribution is taxed at 1% per month for each month the excess remains in the account, calculated on the highest excess balance in that month. The tax is reported on CRA Form RC243 and supporting schedule RC243-Sch-A. Interest on unpaid TFSA tax accrues from the date the return was due until the balance is paid.

Spousal contributions

A person may give a spouse or common-law partner funds for the purpose of contributing to the spouse’s own TFSA. The attribution rules under the Income Tax Act that apply to spousal transfers into non-registered accounts do not apply to TFSA contributions. Neither the original gift nor the investment growth on it is attributed back to the contributing spouse.

Non-resident contributions

A TFSA holder who becomes a non-resident of Canada does not accrue new contribution room while non-resident. Existing balances continue to grow tax-free under Canadian rules. Contributions made while non-resident are subject to a 1% per-month tax on the full amount of the contribution until withdrawn or Canadian residency is re-established.

TFSA treatment for US persons

United States citizens and lawful permanent residents are taxed by the IRS on worldwide income. The Canada-United States Income Tax Convention does not exempt TFSA income from US taxation. Reporting obligations that may apply include Form 8938 (FATCA), FBAR (FinCEN Form 114), Form 8621 (Passive Foreign Investment Company) for Canadian mutual funds and ETFs held inside a TFSA, and Form 3520/3520-A if the TFSA is classified as a foreign trust by the IRS.

Successor holder and beneficiary designations

A TFSA supports two death-benefit designations. A successor holder is available only to a spouse or common-law partner and takes over the account with its tax-free status intact. The balance rolls into the surviving partner’s own TFSA without using the partner’s contribution room. A beneficiary may be any person or the estate and receives the account value as of the date of death on a tax-free basis. Growth on the account between the date of death and the date of distribution is taxable to the beneficiary as ordinary income. Under the Civil Code of Quebec, TFSA beneficiary designations must be made through the will rather than on the account form.

Business-income determination

The CRA may determine that TFSA trading activity constitutes carrying on a business. Where that determination is made, gains in the account are taxable as business income notwithstanding the TFSA wrapper. Factors considered include frequency of transactions, period of ownership of securities, knowledge of securities markets, time spent on the activity, financing of transactions, and advertisement of the activity. The determination is made on a case-by-case basis under the general criteria in CRA Income Tax Folio S3-F10-C1.

French version

A French-language edition of this calculator is available at Projection de croissance du CELI.

Frequently asked questions

How much can a TFSA grow in 30 years?
Contributing each year's TFSA limit from 2009 onward, for a 30-year horizon at a 7% annual return, produces a balance of approximately $830,000. At a 5% return, the same contribution schedule produces approximately $500,000. At 9%, approximately $1,300,000. Final balance depends on the start year, consistency of contributions, and actual investment return.
How much is a maxed-out TFSA worth after 25 years?
Starting from a $109,000 balance in 2026 and contributing $7,000 per year at a 7% return, the balance reaches approximately $650,000 after 25 years. At 5%, approximately $460,000. Total contributions at year 25 equal $284,000. The remainder is tax-free growth.
Do TFSAs compound?
Yes. Interest, eligible dividends, and capital gains earned inside a TFSA are reinvested without tax deduction. The full return compounds each year. A non-registered account loses a fraction of return to tax each year, reducing the base that compounds the following year. Over 25 to 30 year horizons, a TFSA ends with a balance 20% to 40% higher than an equivalent taxable account at typical Canadian marginal rates.
What is the difference between a TFSA and a non-registered account?
A non-registered account has no tax shelter. Interest income is fully taxable in the year earned. Eligible dividends are taxable with the dividend tax credit applied. Capital gains are 50% taxable when realized. A TFSA shelters all three types of return from Canadian income tax. Contributions to both are made with after-tax dollars. Only the TFSA produces tax-free growth and tax-free withdrawals.
Is TFSA growth taxable?
No. Interest, dividends, and capital gains earned inside a TFSA are not subject to Canadian income tax, during growth or on withdrawal. US-source dividends remain subject to a 15% US withholding tax because the Canada-United States Income Tax Convention does not treat the TFSA as a pension account. US citizens and green card holders resident in Canada are taxed by the IRS on TFSA growth as ordinary income.
What return rate is reasonable to assume?
A 5% annual return corresponds to a balanced portfolio of Canadian stocks and bonds. A 7% annual return corresponds to a growth-oriented equity portfolio. A 3% return corresponds to a GIC or short-term bond portfolio. Long-run nominal returns on a 60/40 Canadian portfolio have been in the 6% to 7% range over the past four decades. The calculator supports rates from 0% to 20%.
Can a TFSA lose value?
Yes. A TFSA is a tax wrapper around an investment account. The value depends on the underlying holdings. Stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds held inside a TFSA can fall in value. Capital losses incurred inside a TFSA cannot be claimed against capital gains earned outside the account. GICs and cash held in a TFSA preserve principal but earn interest at current deposit rates.
What is the penalty for over-contributing to a TFSA?
Excess contributions are subject to a 1% per-month tax on the highest excess balance in each month. The tax is reported on CRA Form RC243 and supporting schedule RC243-Sch-A. The tax continues to apply until the excess is withdrawn or additional contribution room accrues to absorb it. Withdrawn amounts restore contribution room on January 1 of the following calendar year, not immediately.